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Danger of Substitution Effect
The consequence of the development of the above alternative communication device is the emergence of what is called substitution effect, namely various conventional communication devices like mail by various alternative communication device. This substitution effect runs faster from time to time, and as mentioned above, if this tendency continuously proceeds the it is not impossible if one of pillars of postal business namely mail delivery which is more and more threatened. Various studies have been done by various postal operators in developed countries to estimated the bad impact of this substitution effect for postal mail business in the future. One of the mot comprehensive studies done by Universal Postal Union (UPU) in 1997 was to estimate the market segment of mail replaced by various electronic communication devices such as telephone, facsimile, and primarily e-mail in year 2005. This study from UPU constitutes as the most extensive since it covers 94 countries in Asia-Pacific, Africa, East Europe,
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