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Agriculture & Commodities: Riding the early cycle recovery
Leading economic indicators. Global economic data have been pointing to concrete evidence of an economic recovery with PMIs rebounding, unemployment generally easing and consumer confidence recovering from their lows. Increased confidence of an economic recovery has enhanced investors' preference for cyclical stocks such as commodities. Indeed, increased economic activity and flow-through effects of pump-priming initiatives will strengthen demand for commodities. The impact is likely to be more pronounced on economically-sensitive commodities such as metals and energy, and less significant for agriculture. We expect companies with exposure to hard commodities or with extensive downstream operations to be the main beneficiaries of the economic recovery.Multiple growth drivers. China's insatiable appetite for commodities, fuelled by its massive infrastructure-related fiscal package and reconstruction following the Sichuan earthquake, has supported organic growth over the last few quarters. Going forward, besid
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